President Trump Just Said This Poll Was the ‘Most Inaccurate’ Around the Election. It Wasn’t
President Trump questioned the accuracy of a new poll that shows him having the lowest approval rating of any modern president during the first six months of his term.
The ABC/Washington Post Poll, even though almost 40% is not bad at this time, was just about the most inaccurate poll around election time!
But Trump’s Sunday tweet about the accuracy of the ABC News/Washington Post poll is questionable when the data is actually examined.
The same poll showed Hillary Clinton narrowly leading Donald Trump 47% to 43% on Nov. 7 2016 — one day before the election. It was a national poll that was assessing the overall popular vote, not the victory margins in individual states. And although Clinton lost the electoral vote, she did ultimately win the popular vote 48.2% to 46.1%. That means the poll was one point off for Clinton and three points off for Trump — slightly outside of the poll’s 2.5 margin of error for the latter, but only by half a point.
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Other polls had similar results. The NBC/WSJ poll released on Nov. 6, 2016 also had Clinton leading Trump by 4 points, 44% to 40% — the final results fell outside the poll’s 2.73 margin of error on both sides. The final pre-election poll conducted by CBS News/New York Times, released on Nov. 3, 2016, like the others, had Clinton leading Trump among likely voters 45% to 42%.
In fact, out of the 21 general election polls showcased by the website RealClearPolitics website on Nov. 7, 2016, only two — the LA Times/USC tracking poll and the IBD/TIPP tracking poll — had Trump winning the general election. The state polls listed on that website were more inaccurate, with several incorrectly predicting, for example, that Clinton would win states like Florida, Michigan and New Hampshire.
The ABC News/Washington Post poll also detected a loss in voter enthusiasm for Clinton following then-FBI Director James Comey’s decision to reopen the probe into her emails in mid-October — a factor Clinton has said contributed to her loss. “The change in strong enthusiasm for Clinton is not statistically significant and could reflect night-to-night variability. Still, it bears watching,” the poll analysis stated on Oct. 31.
Overall, the ABC News/Washington Post poll certainly did not predict Trump’s victory. But it also was more correct than the President let on in his tweet about assessing the ultimate outcome of the popular vote.
The tweet was one of several Trump sent Sunday.
With all of its phony unnamed sources & highly slanted & even fraudulent reporting, #Fake News is DISTORTING DEMOCRACY in our country!
HillaryClinton can illegally get the questions to the Debate & delete 33,000 emails but my son Don is being scorned by the Fake News Media?
He also said the”fake news” media was “distorting democracy” and brought up the revelation from WikiLeaks that Donna Brazile passed along a question from a CNN primary debate to Hillary Clinton campaign associates, claiming there was a discrepancy in coverage between this incident and Donald Trump Jr.’s meeting with a Russian lawyer.
Thirty-six percent of Americans approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance at the six-month mark of his presidency, while 58% disapprove, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.
Trump’s six-month rating is the lowest of any American president at this point in the last 70 years.
The poll was conducted between July 10 and July 13 and comes as Trump continues to weather ongoing controversies surrounding his ties to Russia and as his campaign is investigated for possible collusion with Russia during the 2016 election.
These results also came on the heels of revelations that Donald Trump Jr. met with Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya last June to obtain damaging information on Hillary Clinton that was offered “as part of Russia and its government’s support of Mr. Trump,” according to emails Trump Jr. posted online.
With respect to the meeting, 63% of respondents believe Trump Jr.’s actions were inappropriate. Sixty percent believe Russia meddled in the 2016 election, and 67% believe the Trump campaign colluded with Russia.
Thirty-eight percent of those surveyed believe Trump is making significant progress towards his goals, while 55% feel he is not.
And when asked whether Trump was doing a better or worse job than previous presidents, 50% of respondents said he was doing worse, while just 23% said he was doing better and 24% said he was performing at about the same level as previous presidents.
Respondents also seem to hold a more negative view of Trump’s capabilities on the world stage, with just 27% saying America’s global leadership has gotten strong since he took office, while 48% believe it has gotten weaker.
And when asked how much they trusted Trump to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin, 48% of respondents said they did not trust him at all, while a combined 32% said they trusted him a “great deal” or a “good amount.”
The questions regarding Trump’s interactions with Putin came following his first bilateral sit-down with the Russian leader on the sidelines of the G-20 summit, which many experts saw as a win for Putin.
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